Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 22

Olympiakos Piraeus–Panetolikos

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'Olympiakos PiraeusLorenzo Pirola (assist: Chiquinho)
89'Olympiakos PiraeusY. Yazici (assist: D. Nascimento)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Olympiakos Piraeus		Panetolikos
27	Shots	5
9	Shots on target	1
15	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
12	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
72%	Possession	28%
527	Passes	214
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.67 · Panetolikos 0.22. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Olympiakos Piraeus 27 · Panetolikos 5; on target 9 and 1.
Olympiakos Piraeus kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

S. Zampalas→

6.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 90.2%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 8.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.67 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0.22 for Panetolikos.
The highest double chance value is 98.7% (1X — Olympiakos Piraeus win or draw).
These values were computed from 763 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos Piraeus to win90.2%

Draw8.5%

Panetolikos to win1.3%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 103 of 110 predictions were correct (93.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time60.6%

Level at half-time34.7%

Panetolikos lead at half-time4.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos Piraeus ahead or level95.2%

12 — not level at half-time65.3%

X2 — level or Panetolikos ahead39.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 762 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 12Actual: 12
Panetolikos: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 6Actual: 12
Panetolikos: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score2.67

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 65% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Panetolikos concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.67 goals.

How many goals Panetolikos score0.22

Attack: Panetolikos score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 57% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–020.8%3–018.8%1–014.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.