Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 21

Panathinaikos–Larisa

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'LarisaL. Tupta (assist: P. Sisto)
67'PanathinaikosTasos Bakasetas (assist: A. Gnezda Cerin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panathinaikos		Larisa
16	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
70%	Possession	30%
710	Passes	309
615	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panathinaikos 2.14 · Larisa 0.68. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Panathinaikos 16 · Larisa 8; on target 4 and 3.
Panathinaikos kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

D. Moschou→

8.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.8%: “Panathinaikos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.14 for Panathinaikos, 0.68 for Larisa.
The highest double chance value is 90.8% (1X — Panathinaikos win or draw).
These values were computed from 761 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panathinaikos to win71.8%

Draw19.0%

Larisa to win9.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Panathinaikos lead at half-time58.2%

Level at half-time34.3%

Larisa lead at half-time7.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Panathinaikos ahead or level92.6%

12 — not level at half-time65.7%

X2 — level or Larisa ahead41.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 760 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Panathinaikos: at least 13Actual: 19
Larisa: at least 16Actual: 15

Corners

Panathinaikos: at least 5Actual: 4
Larisa: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panathinaikos score2.14

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Larisa concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.14 goals.

How many goals Larisa score0.68

Attack: Larisa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.1%1–012.1%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.