Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 21

Volos NFC–Aris Thessalonikis

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Aris ThessalonikisGiannis Kargas (own goal)
53'Volos NFCJuanpi (penalty)
58'Aris ThessalonikisM. Hongla · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Volos NFC		Aris Thessalonikis
17	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	3
59%	Possession	41%
506	Passes	365
422	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Volos NFC 0.96 · Aris Thessalonikis 1.24. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Volos NFC 17 · Aris Thessalonikis 4; on target 4 and 1.
Volos NFC kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Sidiropoulos→

5.58

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Aris Thessalonikis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.96 for Volos NFC, 1.24 for Aris Thessalonikis.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (X2 — draw or Aris Thessalonikis win).
These values were computed from 758 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Volos NFC to win27.3%

Draw30.7%

Aris Thessalonikis to win42.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Volos NFC lead at half-time19.2%

Level at half-time47.3%

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time33.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Volos NFC ahead or level66.5%

12 — not level at half-time52.7%

X2 — level or Aris Thessalonikis ahead80.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 757 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Volos NFC: at least 14Actual: 14
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 15Actual: 13

Corners

Volos NFC: at least 4Actual: 4
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Volos NFC score0.96

Attack: Volos NFC score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score1.24

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–113.1%0–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.