Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 20

Aris Thessalonikis–PAOK

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aris Thessalonikis		PAOK
8	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	4
2	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
287	Passes	450
212	Accurate passes	360
12	Fouls	10
4	Yellow cards

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aris Thessalonikis 0.83 · PAOK 1.60. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Aris Thessalonikis 8 · PAOK 13; on target 2 and 4.
PAOK kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

S. Stegemann→

4.90

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.6%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.83 for Aris Thessalonikis, 1.60 for PAOK.
The highest double chance value is 82.1% (X2 — draw or PAOK win).
These values were computed from 754 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aris Thessalonikis to win17.9%

Draw26.6%

PAOK to win55.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time25.3%

Level at half-time43.9%

PAOK lead at half-time30.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Aris Thessalonikis ahead or level69.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or PAOK ahead74.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 753 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 12Actual: 12
PAOK: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 3Actual: 4
PAOK: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score0.83

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAOK score1.60

Attack: PAOK score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.5%1–113.4%0–211.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.