Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 19

Volos NFC–Larisa

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'Volos NFCGiannis Kargas · red card
39'LarisaL. Tupta
45'LarisaL. Tupta (assist: S. Mourgos)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Volos NFC		Larisa
12	Shots	18
2	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
391	Passes	341
314	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Volos NFC 1.37 · Larisa 1.08. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Volos NFC 12 · Larisa 18; on target 2 and 7.

Referee

K. Katoikos→

5.11

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Volos NFC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Volos NFC, 1.08 for Larisa.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (1X — Volos NFC win or draw).
These values were computed from 743 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Volos NFC to win42.9%

Draw29.0%

Larisa to win28.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	22

1	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Volos NFC lead at half-time36.6%

Level at half-time44.4%

Larisa lead at half-time19.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Volos NFC ahead or level81.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Larisa ahead63.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 742 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Volos NFC: at least 13Actual: 15
Larisa: at least 15Actual: 22

Corners

Volos NFC: at least 4Actual: 7
Larisa: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Volos NFC score1.37

Attack: Volos NFC score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Larisa concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Larisa score1.08

Attack: Larisa score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–011.0%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.