Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 18

OFI–Panetolikos

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'OFIE. Salcedo (penalty)
90+5'PanetolikosG. Satsias · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFI		Panetolikos
14	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
420	Passes	409
343	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFI 1.55 · Panetolikos 0.94. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots OFI 14 · Panetolikos 11; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

P. Koukoulas→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.1%: “OFI to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for OFI, 0.94 for Panetolikos.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (1X — OFI win or draw).
These values were computed from 739 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFI to win51.1%

Draw27.3%

Panetolikos to win21.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

OFI lead at half-time52.1%

Level at half-time37.8%

Panetolikos lead at half-time10.1%

First-half double chance

1X — OFI ahead or level89.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Panetolikos ahead47.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 738 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OFI: at least 12Actual: 16
Panetolikos: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

OFI: at least 4Actual: 4
Panetolikos: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFI score1.55

Attack: OFI score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Panetolikos's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panetolikos score0.94

Attack: Panetolikos score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OFI concede 30% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–012.1%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.