Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 18

Aris Thessalonikis–Levadiakos

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Aris ThessalonikisLoren Morón
46'LevadiakosA. Ozbolt (assist: G. Balzi)
63'Aris ThessalonikisU. Račić (assist: Monchu)
90'LevadiakosGiannis Kosti (assist: P. Symelidis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aris Thessalonikis		Levadiakos
19	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
339	Passes	411
276	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aris Thessalonikis 1.16 · Levadiakos 1.31. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Aris Thessalonikis 19 · Levadiakos 8; on target 6 and 2.
Levadiakos kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

M. Matsoukas→

4.57

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Levadiakos to win”. Second comes “Aris Thessalonikis to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for Aris Thessalonikis, 1.31 for Levadiakos.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 738 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aris Thessalonikis to win31.6%

Draw29.2%

Levadiakos to win39.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	15

6	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time32.5%

Level at half-time43.6%

Levadiakos lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Aris Thessalonikis ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Levadiakos ahead67.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 737 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 14Actual: 17
Levadiakos: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 4Actual: 7
Levadiakos: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score1.16

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levadiakos's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levadiakos score1.31

Attack: Levadiakos score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–110.3%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.