Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 18

Olympiakos Piraeus–Volos NFC

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Olympiakos PiraeusA. El Kaabi (assist: D. Podence)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Olympiakos Piraeus		Volos NFC
17	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
13	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
517	Passes	321
421	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.70 · Volos NFC 0.28. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Olympiakos Piraeus 17 · Volos NFC 6; on target 4 and 3.
Olympiakos Piraeus kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

A. Sidiropoulos→

5.68

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 89.2%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.70 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0.28 for Volos NFC.
The highest double chance value is 98.3% (1X — Olympiakos Piraeus win or draw).
These values were computed from 735 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos Piraeus to win89.2%

Draw9.1%

Volos NFC to win1.7%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time54.8%

Level at half-time38.0%

Volos NFC lead at half-time7.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos Piraeus ahead or level92.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Volos NFC ahead45.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 734 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 13Actual: 11
Volos NFC: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 6Actual: 13
Volos NFC: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score2.70

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 65% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Volos NFC score0.28

Attack: Volos NFC score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 57% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–019.4%3–017.7%1–013.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.