Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 17

PAOK–OFI

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 January 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'PAOKD. Pelkas
40'PAOKTaison (assist: D. Chatsidis)
43'PAOKG. Giakoumakis (assist: D. Chatsidis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAOK		OFI
13	Shots	3
6	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	0
1	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
595	Passes	420
535	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAOK 2.88 · OFI 0.39. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots PAOK 13 · OFI 3; on target 6 and 1.
PAOK kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Gioumatzidis→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 88.7%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.88 for PAOK, 0.39 for OFI.
The highest double chance value is 97.7% (1X — PAOK win or draw).
These values were computed from 731 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAOK to win88.7%

Draw9.0%

OFI to win2.3%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 68 of 181 predictions were correct (37.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — PAOK win or draw97.7%

12 — any result other than a draw91.0%

X2 — draw or OFI win11.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (9.0%).

First half

Actual: 3–0

PAOK lead at half-time50.0%

Level at half-time37.0%

OFI lead at half-time13.0%

First-half double chance

1X — PAOK ahead or level87.0%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or OFI ahead50.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 730 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PAOK: at least 13Actual: 14
OFI: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

PAOK: at least 6
OFI: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,731 of 2,756 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAOK score2.88

Attack: PAOK score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: OFI concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.88 goals.

How many goals OFI score0.39

Attack: OFI score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–016.3%3–016.0%4–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 731 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 93 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.