Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 17

Larisa–Aris Thessalonikis

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'LarisaÁ. Sagal (assist: S. Mourgos)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Larisa		Aris Thessalonikis
12	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	6
3	Offsides	3
26%	Possession	74%
174	Passes	496
110	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Larisa 1.09 · Aris Thessalonikis 1.30. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Larisa 12 · Aris Thessalonikis 7; on target 5 and 1.
Aris Thessalonikis kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

S. Zampalas→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “Aris Thessalonikis to win”. Second comes “Larisa to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Larisa, 1.30 for Aris Thessalonikis.
The highest double chance value is 70.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 730 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Larisa to win30.0%

Draw29.6%

Aris Thessalonikis to win40.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

26	Fouls	21

5	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Larisa lead at half-time16.6%

Level at half-time45.1%

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time38.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Larisa ahead or level61.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Aris Thessalonikis ahead83.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 729 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Larisa: at least 14Actual: 26
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 13Actual: 21

Corners

Larisa: at least 3Actual: 4
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Larisa score1.09

Attack: Larisa score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score1.30

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Larisa concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–111.1%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.