Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 16

Aris Thessalonikis–AEK Athens FC

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

8'AEK Athens FCA. Koita (assist: R. Ljubičić)
11'Aris ThessalonikisF. Jensen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aris Thessalonikis		AEK Athens FC
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
267	Passes	462
193	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aris Thessalonikis 0.80 · AEK Athens FC 1.60. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Aris Thessalonikis 10 · AEK Athens FC 11; on target 4 and 3.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

R. Saggi→

4.22

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.4%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.80 for Aris Thessalonikis, 1.60 for AEK Athens FC.
The highest double chance value is 82.8% (X2 — draw or AEK Athens FC win).
These values were computed from 727 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aris Thessalonikis to win17.2%

Draw26.4%

AEK Athens FC to win56.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time25.6%

Level at half-time49.2%

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time25.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Aris Thessalonikis ahead or level74.7%

12 — not level at half-time50.8%

X2 — level or AEK Athens FC ahead74.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 726 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 13Actual: 18
AEK Athens FC: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 3Actual: 7
AEK Athens FC: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score0.80

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEK Athens FC score1.60

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.9%1–113.3%0–211.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.