Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 16

Kifisia–Larisa

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'LarisaÁ. Sagal (assist: L. Tupta)
65'LarisaY. Maçon · red card
89'KifisiaJ. Pokorny (assist: M. Patiras)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kifisia		Larisa
23	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	7
14	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
483	Passes	299
416	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kifisia 2.05 · Larisa 0.90. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Kifisia 23 · Larisa 13; on target 6 and 7.
Kifisia kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

A. Sidiropoulos→

5.64

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.3%: “Kifisia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.05 for Kifisia, 0.90 for Larisa.
The highest double chance value is 85.8% (1X — Kifisia win or draw).
These values were computed from 722 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kifisia to win64.3%

Draw21.5%

Larisa to win14.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,617 of 7,015 predictions were correct (51.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kifisia win or draw85.8%

12 — any result other than a draw78.5%

X2 — draw or Larisa win35.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kifisia lead at half-time55.5%

Level at half-time35.9%

Larisa lead at half-time8.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Kifisia ahead or level91.4%

12 — not level at half-time64.1%

X2 — level or Larisa ahead44.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 721 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kifisia: at least 14Actual: 18
Larisa: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

Kifisia: at least 5Actual: 4
Larisa: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,357 of 4,139 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kifisia score2.05

Attack: Kifisia score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Larisa concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Larisa score0.90

Attack: Larisa score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kifisia's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.2%2–111.0%1–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 722 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 15 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.