Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 15

Panserraikos–Levadiakos

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 22 December 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Serres

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'PanserraikosJuan Francisco Tinaglini · red card
57'LevadiakosBenjamin Verbič (assist: T. Tsapras)
88'PanserraikosC. Georgiadis · red card
89'LevadiakosFabricio Pedrozo (assist: S. Palacios)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panserraikos		Levadiakos
8	Shots	17
1	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	7
2	Offsides	4
37%	Possession	63%
300	Passes	523
211	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panserraikos 0.71 · Levadiakos 2.11. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Panserraikos 8 · Levadiakos 17; on target 1 and 6.
Levadiakos kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

I. Papadopoulos→

5.11

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.3%: “Levadiakos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.71 for Panserraikos, 2.11 for Levadiakos.
The highest double chance value is 89.9% (X2 — draw or Levadiakos win).
These values were computed from 721 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panserraikos to win10.1%

Draw19.7%

Levadiakos to win70.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

2	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Panserraikos lead at half-time11.3%

Level at half-time37.2%

Levadiakos lead at half-time51.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Panserraikos ahead or level48.5%

12 — not level at half-time62.8%

X2 — level or Levadiakos ahead88.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 720 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Panserraikos: at least 14Actual: 14
Levadiakos: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Panserraikos: at least 3Actual: 2
Levadiakos: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panserraikos score0.71

Attack: Panserraikos score below the league average (44% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levadiakos's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levadiakos score2.11

Attack: Levadiakos score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 54% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–213.7%0–111.9%1–210.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.