Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 15

Olympiakos Piraeus–Kifisia

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 11%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Olympiakos PiraeusM. Taremi (penalty)
23'KifisiaP. Pantelidis (assist: Jorge Pombo)
90+1'KifisiaPavlos Pantelidis · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Olympiakos Piraeus		Kifisia
29	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	1
19	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
18	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
456	Passes	223
376	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.70 · Kifisia 0.44. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Olympiakos Piraeus 29 · Kifisia 5; on target 6 and 1.
Olympiakos Piraeus kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

A. Evangelou→

4.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 85.9%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.70 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0.44 for Kifisia.
The highest double chance value is 96.8% (1X — Olympiakos Piraeus win or draw).
These values were computed from 717 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos Piraeus to win85.9%

Draw10.9%

Kifisia to win3.2%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time52.0%

Level at half-time39.2%

Kifisia lead at half-time8.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos Piraeus ahead or level91.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Kifisia ahead48.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 716 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 12Actual: 11
Kifisia: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 6Actual: 18
Kifisia: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score2.70

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 69% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Kifisia concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.70 goals.

How many goals Kifisia score0.44

Attack: Kifisia score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 55% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–016.4%3–014.9%1–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.