Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 15

Volos NFC–Panetolikos

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

66'Volos NFCD. Martinez

Match statistics

Match statistics
Volos NFC		Panetolikos
9	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	9
2	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
457	Passes	326
402	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Volos NFC 1.51 · Panetolikos 0.83. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Volos NFC 9 · Panetolikos 14; on target 3 and 4.
Volos NFC kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Gioumatzidis→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.1%: “Volos NFC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Volos NFC, 0.83 for Panetolikos.
The highest double chance value is 80.8% (1X — Volos NFC win or draw).
These values were computed from 716 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Volos NFC to win53.1%

Draw27.7%

Panetolikos to win19.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Volos NFC lead at half-time40.6%

Level at half-time44.0%

Panetolikos lead at half-time15.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Volos NFC ahead or level84.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Panetolikos ahead59.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 715 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Volos NFC: at least 13Actual: 13
Panetolikos: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

Volos NFC: at least 4Actual: 4
Panetolikos: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Volos NFC score1.51

Attack: Volos NFC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Panetolikos's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panetolikos score0.83

Attack: Panetolikos score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.9%1–113.9%2–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.