Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 14

Aris Thessalonikis–Olympiakos Piraeus

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

51'Olympiakos PiraeusD. Garcia · red card
61'Aris ThessalonikisN. Fadiga · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aris Thessalonikis		Olympiakos Piraeus
12	Shots	15
0	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
349	Passes	470
244	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aris Thessalonikis 0.66 · Olympiakos Piraeus 1.85. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Aris Thessalonikis 12 · Olympiakos Piraeus 15; on target 0 and 5.
Olympiakos Piraeus kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

S. Jablonski→

3.90

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.2%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.66 for Aris Thessalonikis, 1.85 for Olympiakos Piraeus.
The highest double chance value is 88.7% (X2 — draw or Olympiakos Piraeus win).
These values were computed from 713 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aris Thessalonikis to win11.3%

Draw22.5%

Olympiakos Piraeus to win66.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time19.7%

Level at half-time48.7%

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Aris Thessalonikis ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time51.3%

X2 — level or Olympiakos Piraeus ahead80.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 712 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 12Actual: 7
Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 3Actual: 3
Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score0.66

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 54% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score1.85

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 69% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.5%0–214.4%1–111.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.