Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 14

Kifisia–Asteras Tripolis

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kifisia		Asteras Tripolis
20	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	4
62%	Possession	38%
427	Passes	251
343	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kifisia 1.85 · Asteras Tripolis 1.01. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Kifisia 20 · Asteras Tripolis 9; on target 6 and 3.
Kifisia kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

F. Polychronis→

5.23

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.9%: “Kifisia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for Kifisia, 1.01 for Asteras Tripolis.
The highest double chance value is 81.1% (1X — Kifisia win or draw).
These values were computed from 710 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kifisia to win56.9%

Draw24.2%

Asteras Tripolis to win18.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kifisia win or draw81.1%

12 — any result other than a draw75.8%

X2 — draw or Asteras Tripolis win43.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kifisia lead at half-time37.4%

Level at half-time42.1%

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Kifisia ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Asteras Tripolis ahead62.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 709 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kifisia: at least 14Actual: 17
Asteras Tripolis: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Kifisia: at least 4Actual: 6
Asteras Tripolis: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,135 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kifisia score1.85

Attack: Kifisia score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score1.01

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kifisia concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.9%2–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 710 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 39 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.