Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 14

OFI–Panserraikos

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'OFIE. Salcedo
44'OFIT. Fountas (penalty)
45'OFIE. Salcedo (assist: T. Nuss)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFI		Panserraikos
11	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	2
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
8	Corners	5
3	Offsides	4
57%	Possession	43%
424	Passes	307
348	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFI 1.76 · Panserraikos 0.96. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots OFI 11 · Panserraikos 8; on target 4 and 3.
OFI kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

K. Katoikos→

4.71

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.2%: “OFI to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for OFI, 0.96 for Panserraikos.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (1X — OFI win or draw).
These values were computed from 709 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFI to win56.2%

Draw25.0%

Panserraikos to win18.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,614 of 7,012 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — OFI win or draw81.2%

12 — any result other than a draw75.0%

X2 — draw or Panserraikos win43.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.0%).

First half

Actual: 3–0

OFI lead at half-time49.1%

Level at half-time39.3%

Panserraikos lead at half-time11.5%

First-half double chance

1X — OFI ahead or level88.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Panserraikos ahead50.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 708 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OFI: at least 12Actual: 16
Panserraikos: at least 15Actual: 12

Corners

OFI: at least 4Actual: 8
Panserraikos: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFI score1.76

Attack: OFI score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 50% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panserraikos score0.96

Attack: Panserraikos score below the league average (42% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OFI concede 39% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–010.9%2–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 709 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 65 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.