Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 14

Levadiakos–Larisa

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'LevadiakosGiannis Kosti (assist: Panagiotis Liagas)
56'LevadiakosH. Layous
61'LevadiakosA. Ozbolt (assist: H. Layous)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levadiakos		Larisa
18	Shots	3
6	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	0
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
78%	Possession	22%
684	Passes	196
584	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levadiakos 2.12 · Larisa 0.88. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Levadiakos 18 · Larisa 3; on target 6 and 1.
Levadiakos kept the ball more (78%).

Referee

M. Matsoukas→

4.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.3%: “Levadiakos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.12 for Levadiakos, 0.88 for Larisa.
The highest double chance value is 87.0% (1X — Levadiakos win or draw).
These values were computed from 708 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levadiakos to win66.3%

Draw20.6%

Larisa to win13.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	20

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Levadiakos lead at half-time57.8%

Level at half-time33.7%

Larisa lead at half-time8.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Levadiakos ahead or level91.4%

12 — not level at half-time66.3%

X2 — level or Larisa ahead42.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 707 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levadiakos: at least 12Actual: 9
Larisa: at least 15Actual: 20

Corners

Levadiakos: at least 4Actual: 9
Larisa: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levadiakos score2.12

Attack: Levadiakos score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Larisa concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Larisa score0.88

Attack: Larisa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levadiakos's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.4%2–110.9%1–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.