Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 13

AEK Athens FC–Atromitos

4–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: OPAP Arena, Athens

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'AEK Athens FCOrbelín Pineda (assist: L. Rota)
65'AEK Athens FCL. Jović (penalty)
70'AEK Athens FCL. Jović (assist: R. Marin)
73'AtromitosP. Tsantilas (assist: Aitor García)
86'AEK Athens FCR. Ljubičić

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Atromitos
17	Shots	5
9	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	0
0	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
523	Passes	367
463	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 2.17 · Atromitos 0.51. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots AEK Athens FC 17 · Atromitos 5; on target 9 and 2.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

S. Zampalas→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.8%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.17 for AEK Athens FC, 0.51 for Atromitos.
The highest double chance value is 93.8% (1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 706 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win76.8%

Draw17.0%

Atromitos to win6.2%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time46.1%

Level at half-time41.9%

Atromitos lead at half-time11.9%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC ahead or level88.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Atromitos ahead53.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 705 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Athens FC: at least 14Actual: 14
Atromitos: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

AEK Athens FC: at least 6
Atromitos: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score2.17

Attack: AEK Athens FC score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Atromitos's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atromitos score0.51

Attack: Atromitos score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–016.9%1–014.3%3–012.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.