Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 12

Aris Thessalonikis–Larisa

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'Aris ThessalonikisLoren Morón
46'LarisaL. Garate · red card
90'LarisaG. Pasas (penalty)
90'Aris ThessalonikisDudu

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aris Thessalonikis		Larisa
18	Shots	2
8	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	0
3	Offsides	3
66%	Possession	34%
532	Passes	285
456	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aris Thessalonikis 1.55 · Larisa 0.94. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Aris Thessalonikis 18 · Larisa 2; on target 8 and 1.
Aris Thessalonikis kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Fotios Polychronis, Greece→

4.00

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Aris Thessalonikis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Aris Thessalonikis, 0.94 for Larisa.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (1X — Aris Thessalonikis win or draw).
These values were computed from 695 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aris Thessalonikis to win51.4%

Draw27.3%

Larisa to win21.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	21

4	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time47.6%

Level at half-time42.2%

Larisa lead at half-time10.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Aris Thessalonikis ahead or level89.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Larisa ahead52.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 694 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 13Actual: 14
Larisa: at least 14Actual: 21

Corners

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 5
Larisa: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score1.55

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Larisa concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Larisa score0.94

Attack: Larisa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–012.1%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.