Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 6

Panserraikos–Asteras Tripolis

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Serres

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'PanserraikosV. De Marco (assist: C. Nunnely)
57'Asteras TripolisE. Gonzalez
88'PanserraikosA. Maraš

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panserraikos		Asteras Tripolis
10	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
366	Passes	316
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panserraikos 1.19 · Asteras Tripolis 1.36. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Panserraikos 10 · Asteras Tripolis 10; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

Panagiotis Koukoulas, Greece→

9.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Asteras Tripolis to win”. Second comes “Panserraikos to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Panserraikos, 1.36 for Asteras Tripolis.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 652 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panserraikos to win31.6%

Draw28.6%

Asteras Tripolis to win39.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

25	Fouls	18

5	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Panserraikos lead at half-time24.3%

Level at half-time44.4%

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time31.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Panserraikos ahead or level68.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Asteras Tripolis ahead75.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 651 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Panserraikos: at least 12Actual: 25
Asteras Tripolis: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Panserraikos: at least 3Actual: 2
Asteras Tripolis: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panserraikos score1.19

Attack: Panserraikos score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score1.36

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 44% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–19.7%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.