Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 6

OFI–Aris Thessalonikis

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'OFIE. Salcedo (assist: Juan Angel Neira)
61'OFIJuan Angel Neira
80'OFIG. Apostolakis (assist: N. Marinakis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFI		Aris Thessalonikis
9	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	7
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
33%	Possession	67%
223	Passes	437
152	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFI 1.07 · Aris Thessalonikis 1.46. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots OFI 9 · Aris Thessalonikis 12; on target 6 and 6.
Aris Thessalonikis kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Athanasios Tzilos, Greece→

11.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.7%: “Aris Thessalonikis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for OFI, 1.46 for Aris Thessalonikis.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (X2 — draw or Aris Thessalonikis win).
These values were computed from 652 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFI to win26.2%

Draw28.1%

Aris Thessalonikis to win45.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	19

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

OFI lead at half-time20.0%

Level at half-time46.6%

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time33.4%

First-half double chance

1X — OFI ahead or level66.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Aris Thessalonikis ahead80.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 651 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OFI: at least 12Actual: 17
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 14Actual: 19

Corners

OFI: at least 3Actual: 2
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFI score1.07

Attack: OFI score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score1.46

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OFI concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%0–110.8%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.