Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 5

AEK Athens FC–Volos NFC

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: OPAP Arena, Athens

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'AEK Athens FCF. Pierrot (assist: N. Eliasson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Volos NFC
14	Shots	3
2	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	0
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
474	Passes	349
413	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 2.56 · Volos NFC 0.33. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AEK Athens FC 14 · Volos NFC 3; on target 2 and 1.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Vassilis Fotias, Greece→

4.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 86.7%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.56 for AEK Athens FC, 0.33 for Volos NFC.
The highest double chance value is 97.5% (1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 647 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win86.7%

Draw10.8%

Volos NFC to win2.5%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time53.5%

Level at half-time40.2%

Volos NFC lead at half-time6.4%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC ahead or level93.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Volos NFC ahead46.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 646 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Athens FC: at least 14Actual: 16
Volos NFC: at least 14Actual: 19

Corners

AEK Athens FC: at least 7Actual: 2
Volos NFC: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score2.56

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 51% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.56 goals.

How many goals Volos NFC score0.33

Attack: Volos NFC score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–019.1%3–016.4%1–013.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.