Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 5

Aris Thessalonikis–Panserraikos

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Aris ThessalonikisMonchu (assist: A. Tejero)
50'PanserraikosA. Ivan (assist: A. Green)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aris Thessalonikis		Panserraikos
25	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	1
4	Offsides	0
73%	Possession	27%
548	Passes	209
475	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aris Thessalonikis 1.95 · Panserraikos 0.68. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Aris Thessalonikis 25 · Panserraikos 8; on target 4 and 2.
Aris Thessalonikis kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

Angelos Evangelou, Greece→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.9%: “Aris Thessalonikis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for Aris Thessalonikis, 0.68 for Panserraikos.
The highest double chance value is 89.2% (1X — Aris Thessalonikis win or draw).
These values were computed from 646 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aris Thessalonikis to win67.9%

Draw21.3%

Panserraikos to win10.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time46.3%

Level at half-time43.4%

Panserraikos lead at half-time10.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Aris Thessalonikis ahead or level89.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Panserraikos ahead53.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 645 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 13Actual: 11
Panserraikos: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 5Actual: 10
Panserraikos: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score1.95

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 45% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panserraikos score0.68

Attack: Panserraikos score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.2%1–013.5%1–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.