Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 5

Olympiakos Piraeus–Levadiakos

3–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Olympiakos PiraeusPanagiotis Retsos (assist: C. Mouzakitis)
58'LevadiakosS. Palacios (assist: A. Ozbolt)
60'Olympiakos PiraeusChiquinho
79'LevadiakosK. Goumas (assist: G. Manthatis)
90'Olympiakos PiraeusChiquinho (assist: D. Garcia)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Olympiakos Piraeus		Levadiakos
19	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
369	Passes	426
290	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.11 · Levadiakos 0.50. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Olympiakos Piraeus 19 · Levadiakos 6; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

Alexandros Katsikogiannis, Greece→

7.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.2%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0.50 for Levadiakos.
The highest double chance value is 93.7% (1X — Olympiakos Piraeus win or draw).
These values were computed from 645 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos Piraeus to win76.2%

Draw17.5%

Levadiakos to win6.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time45.7%

Level at half-time42.4%

Levadiakos lead at half-time11.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos Piraeus ahead or level88.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Levadiakos ahead54.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 644 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 13Actual: 13
Levadiakos: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 6Actual: 10
Levadiakos: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score2.11

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Levadiakos's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levadiakos score0.50

Attack: Levadiakos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 50% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–017.2%1–015.0%3–012.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.