Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 4

PAOK–Panetolikos

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 16%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

82'PanetolikosUnai García · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAOK		Panetolikos
24	Shots	3
8	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
12	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
78%	Possession	22%
591	Passes	173
524	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAOK 2.20 · Panetolikos 0.43. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots PAOK 24 · Panetolikos 3; on target 8 and 2.
PAOK kept the ball more (78%).

Referee

Anastasios Sidiropoulos, Greece→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.4%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.20 for PAOK, 0.43 for Panetolikos.
The highest double chance value is 95.1% (1X — PAOK win or draw).
These values were computed from 641 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAOK to win79.4%

Draw15.8%

Panetolikos to win4.9%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 753 of 933 predictions were correct (80.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

PAOK lead at half-time58.2%

Level at half-time36.3%

Panetolikos lead at half-time5.4%

First-half double chance

1X — PAOK ahead or level94.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.7%

X2 — level or Panetolikos ahead41.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 640 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PAOK: at least 12Actual: 10
Panetolikos: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

PAOK: at least 5Actual: 12
Panetolikos: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAOK score2.20

Attack: PAOK score above the league average (50% more).

Opponent's defence: Panetolikos's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panetolikos score0.43

Attack: Panetolikos score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–018.3%1–015.3%3–013.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.