Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 4

Volos NFC–Asteras Tripolis

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.6% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'Volos NFCL. Labrou (assist: Núrio Fortuna)
72'Volos NFCNúrio Fortuna
82'Asteras TripolisF. Macheda (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Volos NFC		Asteras Tripolis
17	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
336	Passes	370
269	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Volos NFC 1.08 · Asteras Tripolis 1.13. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Volos NFC 17 · Asteras Tripolis 12; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

Fotios Polychronis, Greece→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “Asteras Tripolis to win”. Second comes “Volos NFC to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Volos NFC, 1.13 for Asteras Tripolis.
The highest double chance value is 68.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 640 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Volos NFC to win33.1%

Draw31.2%

Asteras Tripolis to win35.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	21

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Volos NFC lead at half-time20.4%

Level at half-time48.4%

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time31.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Volos NFC ahead or level68.8%

12 — not level at half-time51.6%

X2 — level or Asteras Tripolis ahead79.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 639 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Volos NFC: at least 13Actual: 16
Asteras Tripolis: at least 14Actual: 21

Corners

Volos NFC: at least 4Actual: 7
Asteras Tripolis: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Volos NFC score1.08

Attack: Volos NFC score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score1.13

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–111.6%1–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.