Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 3

Atromitos–Aris Thessalonikis

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 September 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'AtromitosG. Tzovaras
32'Aris ThessalonikisDudu (assist: H. Mendyl)
56'Aris ThessalonikisLoren Morón (assist: U. Račić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atromitos		Aris Thessalonikis
7	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	7
0	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
482	Passes	385
401	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atromitos 1.24 · Aris Thessalonikis 1.04. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Atromitos 7 · Aris Thessalonikis 11; on target 2 and 5.
Atromitos kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Vassilis Fotias, Greece→

4.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Atromitos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Atromitos, 1.04 for Aris Thessalonikis.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (1X — Atromitos win or draw).
These values were computed from 632 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atromitos to win40.2%

Draw30.4%

Aris Thessalonikis to win29.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Atromitos lead at half-time21.6%

Level at half-time47.5%

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time30.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Atromitos ahead or level69.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.5%

X2 — level or Aris Thessalonikis ahead78.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 631 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atromitos: at least 13Actual: 12
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Atromitos: at least 4Actual: 4
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atromitos score1.24

Attack: Atromitos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score1.04

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atromitos's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–011.9%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.