Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 2

AEK Athens FC–Asteras Tripolis

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 31 August 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: OPAP Arena, Athens

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'AEK Athens FCF. Pierrot (assist: P. Mantalos)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Asteras Tripolis
15	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
485	Passes	387
426	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 2.20 · Asteras Tripolis 0.44. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AEK Athens FC 15 · Asteras Tripolis 4; on target 4 and 2.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Alexandros Tsakalidis, Greece→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.2%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.20 for AEK Athens FC, 0.44 for Asteras Tripolis.
The highest double chance value is 95.0% (1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 628 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win79.2%

Draw15.8%

Asteras Tripolis to win5.0%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time46.4%

Level at half-time43.2%

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time10.3%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC ahead or level89.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Asteras Tripolis ahead53.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 627 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Athens FC: at least 12Actual: 17
Asteras Tripolis: at least 13Actual: 7

Corners

AEK Athens FC: at least 6Actual: 5
Asteras Tripolis: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score2.20

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score0.44

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–018.2%1–015.3%3–013.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.