Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 1

Olympiakos Piraeus–Asteras Tripolis

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 August 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'Olympiakos PiraeusY. Yazici (assist: C. Mouzakitis)
90'Olympiakos PiraeusA. El Kaabi (assist: D. Nascimento)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Olympiakos Piraeus		Asteras Tripolis
22	Shots	3
3	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	0
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
12	Corners	3
4	Offsides	3
73%	Possession	27%
580	Passes	233
506	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.35 · Asteras Tripolis 0.40. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Olympiakos Piraeus 22 · Asteras Tripolis 3; on target 3 and 1.
Olympiakos Piraeus kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

Anastasios Sidiropoulos, Greece→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.4%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.35 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0.40 for Asteras Tripolis.
The highest double chance value is 96.1% (1X — Olympiakos Piraeus win or draw).
These values were computed from 618 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos Piraeus to win82.4%

Draw13.7%

Asteras Tripolis to win3.9%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 491 of 585 predictions were correct (83.9%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time50.1%

Level at half-time39.8%

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time10.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos Piraeus ahead or level89.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Asteras Tripolis ahead49.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 617 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 12Actual: 10
Asteras Tripolis: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 5Actual: 12
Asteras Tripolis: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score2.35

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score0.40

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 47% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–018.5%3–014.5%1–014.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.