Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 34

Pogon Szczecin–GKS Katowice

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin

Goals and red cards

31'Pogon SzczecinFilip Čuić (assist: Dimitrios Keramitsis)
90'GKS KatowiceM. Wedrychowski (assist: B. Galan)
90+2'Pogon SzczecinKrzysztof Kamiński · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pogon Szczecin		GKS Katowice
14	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
358	Passes	405
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pogon Szczecin 1.71 · GKS Katowice 1.15. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Pogon Szczecin 14 · GKS Katowice 9; on target 2 and 3.

Referee

D. Sylwestrzak→

4.88

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.0%: “Pogon Szczecin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.15 for GKS Katowice.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (1X — Pogon Szczecin win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pogon Szczecin to win50.0%

Draw25.7%

GKS Katowice to win24.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Pogon Szczecin win or draw75.8%

12 — any result other than a draw74.3%

X2 — draw or GKS Katowice win50.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Pogon Szczecin lead at half-time36.7%

Level at half-time39.7%

GKS Katowice lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Pogon Szczecin ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or GKS Katowice ahead63.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pogon Szczecin: at least 11Actual: 12
GKS Katowice: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Pogon Szczecin: at least 5Actual: 4
GKS Katowice: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pogon Szczecin score1.71

Attack: Pogon Szczecin score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GKS Katowice's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GKS Katowice score1.15

Attack: GKS Katowice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pogon Szczecin's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.6%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1215 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 67 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.