Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 34

Gornik Zabrze–Radomiak Radom

6–2

HT 5–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze

Goals and red cards

9'Gornik ZabrzeM. Khlan
13'Gornik ZabrzeM. Khlan (assist: Y. Ikia Dimi)
28'Gornik ZabrzeS. Liseth (assist: Lukáš Sadílek)
42'Gornik ZabrzeLukáš Sadílek (assist: Erik Janža)
45'Gornik ZabrzeLukáš Sadílek (assist: S. Liseth)
53'Gornik ZabrzeErik Janža (assist: M. Khlan)
72'

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gornik Zabrze		Radomiak Radom
25	Shots	10
11	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
444	Passes	481
381	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gornik Zabrze 1.50 · Radomiak Radom 0.99. On the pitch: 6-2.
Shots Gornik Zabrze 25 · Radomiak Radom 10; on target 11 and 3.

Referee

S. Marciniak→

4.07

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

114

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.6%: “Gornik Zabrze to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Gornik Zabrze, 0.99 for Radomiak Radom.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (1X — Gornik Zabrze win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gornik Zabrze to win48.6%

Draw27.9%

Radomiak Radom to win23.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

E. Balde (assist: Adrián Diéguez)

80'Radomiak RadomS. Soumah (assist: Adrián Diéguez)

9	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Gornik Zabrze win or draw76.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Radomiak Radom win51.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 5–0

Gornik Zabrze lead at half-time40.1%

Level at half-time43.5%

Radomiak Radom lead at half-time16.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Gornik Zabrze ahead or level83.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Radomiak Radom ahead59.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gornik Zabrze: at least 11Actual: 9
Radomiak Radom: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Gornik Zabrze: at least 5Actual: 6
Radomiak Radom: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (48.6%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gornik Zabrze score1.50

Attack: Gornik Zabrze score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radomiak Radom's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radomiak Radom score0.99

Attack: Radomiak Radom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gornik Zabrze concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–011.7%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1215 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 135 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.