Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 33
HT 1–1
| Arka Gdynia | Nieciecza | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 8 | Shots inside the box | 8 |
| 1 | Goalkeeper saves | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 44% | Possession | 56% |
| 324 | Passes | 427 |
| 238 | Accurate passes |
3.31
yellows per match
0.00
reds per match
13
matches of data
13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →
| 333 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
|---|
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
|---|
The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.
When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.8%).
First-half double chance
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1214 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
Fouls
Corners
These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.
When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →
The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
Attack: Arka Gdynia score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Nieciecza concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).
Attack: Nieciecza score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Arka Gdynia concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 1214 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 32 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.