Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 33

Lechia Gdansk–Legia Warszawa

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

11'Legia WarszawaJ. Nsame (assist: K. Chodyna)
63'Lechia GdanskTomáš Bobček (assist: C. Mena)
87'Lechia GdanskI. Zhelizko · red card
90'Legia WarszawaA. Colak

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lechia Gdansk		Legia Warszawa
16	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
470	Passes	275
373	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lechia Gdansk 1.45 · Legia Warszawa 1.34. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Lechia Gdansk 16 · Legia Warszawa 9; on target 6 and 4.
Lechia Gdansk kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

D. Sylwestrzak→

4.85

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Lechia Gdansk to win”. Second comes “Legia Warszawa to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Lechia Gdansk, 1.34 for Legia Warszawa.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,213 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lechia Gdansk to win39.1%

Draw27.3%

Legia Warszawa to win33.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lechia Gdansk win or draw66.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.7%

X2 — draw or Legia Warszawa win60.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Lechia Gdansk lead at half-time37.1%

Level at half-time39.2%

Legia Warszawa lead at half-time23.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Lechia Gdansk ahead or level76.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Legia Warszawa ahead62.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1213 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lechia Gdansk: at least 11Actual: 17
Legia Warszawa: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Lechia Gdansk: at least 4Actual: 4
Legia Warszawa: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lechia Gdansk score1.45

Attack: Lechia Gdansk score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Legia Warszawa concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Legia Warszawa score1.34

Attack: Legia Warszawa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lechia Gdansk concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–19.5%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1213 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 100 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.