Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 33

GKS Katowice–Jagiellonia

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 12:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Katowice, Katowice

Goals and red cards

3'GKS KatowiceB. Nowak (assist: M. Kowalczyk)
31'JagielloniaBernardo Vital (assist: Sergio Lozano)
56'JagielloniaAfimico Pululu (penalty)
78'GKS KatowiceB. Galan (assist: B. Nowak)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GKS Katowice		Jagiellonia
11	Shots	22
5	Shots on target	8
7	Shots inside the box	14
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	9
0	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
304	Passes	449
235	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GKS Katowice 1.60 · Jagiellonia 1.28. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots GKS Katowice 11 · Jagiellonia 22; on target 5 and 8.
Jagiellonia kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

P. Raczkowski→

5.42

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.3%: “GKS Katowice to win”. Second comes “Jagiellonia to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for GKS Katowice, 1.28 for Jagiellonia.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,212 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GKS Katowice to win44.3%

Draw26.5%

Jagiellonia to win29.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — GKS Katowice win or draw70.8%

12 — any result other than a draw73.5%

X2 — draw or Jagiellonia win55.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

GKS Katowice lead at half-time32.0%

Level at half-time39.7%

Jagiellonia lead at half-time28.2%

First-half double chance

1X — GKS Katowice ahead or level71.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Jagiellonia ahead68.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1212 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GKS Katowice: at least 12Actual: 15
Jagiellonia: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

GKS Katowice: at least 4Actual: 4
Jagiellonia: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GKS Katowice score1.60

Attack: GKS Katowice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Jagiellonia's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Jagiellonia score1.28

Attack: Jagiellonia score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: GKS Katowice's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.1%1–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1212 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 66 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.