Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 31

Raków Częstochowa–Jagiellonia

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 13 May 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

34'JagielloniaY. Kobayashi (assist: Sergio Lozano)
83'JagielloniaKajetan Szmyt (assist: Matías Nahuel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Raków Częstochowa		Jagiellonia
25	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	7
16	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
496	Passes	347
433	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Raków Częstochowa 1.77 · Jagiellonia 1.04. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Raków Częstochowa 25 · Jagiellonia 13; on target 3 and 7.
Raków Częstochowa kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

S. Marciniak→

4.04

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

112

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “Raków Częstochowa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for Raków Częstochowa, 1.04 for Jagiellonia.
The highest double chance value is 79.3% (1X — Raków Częstochowa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,205 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Raków Częstochowa to win54.3%

Draw25.0%

Jagiellonia to win20.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Raków Częstochowa win or draw79.3%

12 — any result other than a draw75.0%

X2 — draw or Jagiellonia win45.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Raków Częstochowa lead at half-time37.7%

Level at half-time41.6%

Jagiellonia lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Raków Częstochowa ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Jagiellonia ahead62.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1205 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Raków Częstochowa: at least 11Actual: 8
Jagiellonia: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

Raków Częstochowa: at least 4Actual: 6
Jagiellonia: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score1.77

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Jagiellonia's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Jagiellonia score1.04

Attack: Jagiellonia score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.8%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1205 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 133 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.