Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 32

Piast Gliwice–GKS Katowice

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 10:15
Status: Match Finished

Match statistics

Match statistics
Piast Gliwice		GKS Katowice
18	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
470	Passes	301
371	Accurate passes	214
14	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Piast Gliwice 1.58 · GKS Katowice 1.08. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Piast Gliwice 18 · GKS Katowice 8; on target 3 and 4.
Piast Gliwice kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

D. Sylwestrzak→

4.87

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “Piast Gliwice to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Piast Gliwice, 1.08 for GKS Katowice.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (1X — Piast Gliwice win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,200 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Piast Gliwice to win48.5%

Draw26.9%

GKS Katowice to win24.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Piast Gliwice lead at half-time26.5%

Level at half-time42.6%

GKS Katowice lead at half-time30.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Piast Gliwice ahead or level69.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or GKS Katowice ahead73.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1200 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Piast Gliwice: at least 10Actual: 14
GKS Katowice: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Piast Gliwice: at least 5Actual: 4
GKS Katowice: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Piast Gliwice score1.58

Attack: Piast Gliwice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GKS Katowice's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GKS Katowice score1.08

Attack: GKS Katowice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Piast Gliwice's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–110.4%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.