Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 32

Gornik Zabrze–Zaglebie Lubin

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze

Goals and red cards

63'Zaglebie LubinJ. Kolan (assist: L. Szabo)
74'Zaglebie LubinL. Szabo (assist: J. Sypek)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gornik Zabrze		Zaglebie Lubin
25	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	6
15	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
15	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
492	Passes	285
431	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gornik Zabrze 1.59 · Zaglebie Lubin 0.87. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Gornik Zabrze 25 · Zaglebie Lubin 13; on target 5 and 6.
Gornik Zabrze kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

S. Marciniak→

4.06

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

111

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “Gornik Zabrze to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Gornik Zabrze, 0.87 for Zaglebie Lubin.
The highest double chance value is 80.8% (1X — Gornik Zabrze win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,199 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gornik Zabrze to win54.0%

Draw26.8%

Zaglebie Lubin to win19.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Gornik Zabrze lead at half-time39.3%

Level at half-time43.3%

Zaglebie Lubin lead at half-time17.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Gornik Zabrze ahead or level82.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Zaglebie Lubin ahead60.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1199 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gornik Zabrze: at least 10Actual: 10
Zaglebie Lubin: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Gornik Zabrze: at least 5Actual: 15
Zaglebie Lubin: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gornik Zabrze score1.59

Attack: Gornik Zabrze score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zaglebie Lubin's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zaglebie Lubin score0.87

Attack: Zaglebie Lubin score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gornik Zabrze concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–012.9%2–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.