Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 32

Raków Częstochowa–Korona Kielce

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 8 May 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

48'Raków CzęstochowaL. Diaby-Fadiga (assist: O. Repka)
57'Raków CzęstochowaM. Bulat (assist: L. Diaby-Fadiga)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Raków Częstochowa		Korona Kielce
14	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
431	Passes	445
348	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Raków Częstochowa 1.85 · Korona Kielce 0.94. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Raków Częstochowa 14 · Korona Kielce 11; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

L. Kuzma→

3.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.7%: “Raków Częstochowa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for Raków Częstochowa, 0.94 for Korona Kielce.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (1X — Raków Częstochowa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,195 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Raków Częstochowa to win58.7%

Draw23.9%

Korona Kielce to win17.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,614 of 7,012 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Raków Częstochowa win or draw82.6%

12 — any result other than a draw76.1%

X2 — draw or Korona Kielce win41.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Raków Częstochowa lead at half-time39.7%

Level at half-time42.9%

Korona Kielce lead at half-time17.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Raków Częstochowa ahead or level82.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Korona Kielce ahead60.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1195 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Raków Częstochowa: at least 11Actual: 9
Korona Kielce: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Raków Częstochowa: at least 4Actual: 6
Korona Kielce: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score1.85

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Korona Kielce's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Korona Kielce score0.94

Attack: Korona Kielce score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.9%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1195 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 132 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.