Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 31

Radomiak Radom–Lechia Gdansk

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 4 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

26'Radomiak RadomA. Tapsoba (assist: E. Balde)
36'Radomiak RadomJ. Blasco · red card
45'Radomiak RadomA. Tapsoba
48'Radomiak RadomA. Tapsoba (assist: E. Balde)
66'Lechia GdanskTomáš Bobček (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radomiak Radom		Lechia Gdansk
13	Shots	27
5	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	17
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	7
0	Offsides	3
33%	Possession	67%
250	Passes	475
172	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radomiak Radom 1.67 · Lechia Gdansk 1.24. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Radomiak Radom 13 · Lechia Gdansk 27; on target 5 and 7.
Lechia Gdansk kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

S. Marciniak→

4.07

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

110

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.1%: “Radomiak Radom to win”. Second comes “Lechia Gdansk to win” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Radomiak Radom, 1.24 for Lechia Gdansk.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,194 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radomiak Radom to win47.1%

Draw26.0%

Lechia Gdansk to win27.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Radomiak Radom win or draw73.0%

12 — any result other than a draw74.0%

X2 — draw or Lechia Gdansk win52.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Radomiak Radom lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time40.7%

Lechia Gdansk lead at half-time32.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Radomiak Radom ahead or level67.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Lechia Gdansk ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1194 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radomiak Radom: at least 11Actual: 10
Lechia Gdansk: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Radomiak Radom: at least 4Actual: 4
Lechia Gdansk: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radomiak Radom score1.67

Attack: Radomiak Radom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lechia Gdansk's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lechia Gdansk score1.24

Attack: Lechia Gdansk score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Radomiak Radom's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–110.4%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1194 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 98 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.