Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 31

Pogon Szczecin–Wisla Plock

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin

Goals and red cards

45'Pogon SzczecinFilip Čuić
75'Pogon SzczecinFilip Čuić
90'Pogon SzczecinH. Ali (assist: J. Czaplinski)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pogon Szczecin		Wisla Plock
11	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	9
1	Offsides	3
51%	Possession	49%
339	Passes	319
271	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pogon Szczecin 1.61 · Wisla Plock 1.01. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Pogon Szczecin 11 · Wisla Plock 10; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

P. Raczkowski→

5.47

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Pogon Szczecin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.01 for Wisla Plock.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (1X — Pogon Szczecin win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,193 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pogon Szczecin to win51.2%

Draw26.7%

Wisla Plock to win22.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Pogon Szczecin win or draw77.8%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or Wisla Plock win48.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Pogon Szczecin lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time45.1%

Wisla Plock lead at half-time27.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Pogon Szczecin ahead or level72.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Wisla Plock ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1193 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pogon Szczecin: at least 10Actual: 10
Wisla Plock: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Pogon Szczecin: at least 6Actual: 5
Wisla Plock: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pogon Szczecin score1.61

Attack: Pogon Szczecin score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wisla Plock's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wisla Plock score1.01

Attack: Wisla Plock score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pogon Szczecin's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–011.0%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1193 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 64 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.