Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 30

Cracovia Krakow–Pogon Szczecin

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

18'Pogon SzczecinKellyn Acosta
90'Cracovia KrakowO. Wojcik · red card
90'Cracovia KrakowK. Zahiroleslam (assist: M. Klich)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cracovia Krakow		Pogon Szczecin
14	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	0
3	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
415	Passes	349
324	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cracovia Krakow 1.44 · Pogon Szczecin 1.21. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Cracovia Krakow 14 · Pogon Szczecin 9; on target 4 and 2.
Cracovia Krakow kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

D. Sylwestrzak→

4.85

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.4%: “Cracovia Krakow to win”. Second comes “Pogon Szczecin to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Cracovia Krakow, 1.21 for Pogon Szczecin.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,183 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cracovia Krakow to win41.4%

Draw27.9%

Pogon Szczecin to win30.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cracovia Krakow win or draw69.3%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Pogon Szczecin win58.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Cracovia Krakow lead at half-time32.1%

Level at half-time43.4%

Pogon Szczecin lead at half-time24.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Cracovia Krakow ahead or level75.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Pogon Szczecin ahead67.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1183 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cracovia Krakow: at least 11Actual: 14
Pogon Szczecin: at least 11Actual: 20

Corners

Cracovia Krakow: at least 5
Pogon Szczecin: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cracovia Krakow score1.44

Attack: Cracovia Krakow score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pogon Szczecin's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pogon Szczecin score1.21

Attack: Pogon Szczecin score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cracovia Krakow's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.7%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1183 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 131 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.