Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 29

Lechia Gdansk–Piast Gliwice

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 20 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

24'Piast GliwiceE. Twumasi · red card
63'Lechia GdanskI. Zhelizko
85'Piast GliwicePatryk Dziczek (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lechia Gdansk		Piast Gliwice
19	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	0
1	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
409	Passes	348
324	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lechia Gdansk 1.66 · Piast Gliwice 1.17. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Lechia Gdansk 19 · Piast Gliwice 8; on target 6 and 2.
Lechia Gdansk kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

P. Raczkowski→

5.48

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Lechia Gdansk to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Lechia Gdansk, 1.17 for Piast Gliwice.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (1X — Lechia Gdansk win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,178 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lechia Gdansk to win48.2%

Draw26.2%

Piast Gliwice to win25.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lechia Gdansk win or draw74.4%

12 — any result other than a draw73.8%

X2 — draw or Piast Gliwice win51.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Lechia Gdansk lead at half-time48.0%

Level at half-time37.8%

Piast Gliwice lead at half-time14.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Lechia Gdansk ahead or level85.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Piast Gliwice ahead52.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1178 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lechia Gdansk: at least 11Actual: 13
Piast Gliwice: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Lechia Gdansk: at least 4
Piast Gliwice: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lechia Gdansk score1.66

Attack: Lechia Gdansk score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Piast Gliwice's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Piast Gliwice score1.17

Attack: Piast Gliwice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lechia Gdansk's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.5%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1178 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 96 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.