Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 29

Raków Częstochowa–Cracovia Krakow

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 12:45
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

39'Raków CzęstochowaP. Makuch (assist: Bogdan Racovițan)
45'Cracovia KrakowAmir Al-Ammari · red card
45'Raków CzęstochowaJonatan Braut Brunes (penalty)
50'Cracovia KrakowDijon Kameri
60'Raków CzęstochowaP. Makuch (assist: J. C. Silva)
90'Raków CzęstochowaL. Rocha

Match statistics

Match statistics
Raków Częstochowa		Cracovia Krakow
9	Shots	19
7	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
558	Passes	345
491	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Raków Częstochowa 1.62 · Cracovia Krakow 0.88. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Raków Częstochowa 9 · Cracovia Krakow 19; on target 7 and 6.
Raków Częstochowa kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

S. Marciniak→

4.08

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

108

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.7%: “Raków Częstochowa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Raków Częstochowa, 0.88 for Cracovia Krakow.
The highest double chance value is 81.1% (1X — Raków Częstochowa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,176 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Raków Częstochowa to win54.7%

Draw26.4%

Cracovia Krakow to win18.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Raków Częstochowa lead at half-time35.2%

Level at half-time45.3%

Cracovia Krakow lead at half-time19.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Raków Częstochowa ahead or level80.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Cracovia Krakow ahead64.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1176 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Raków Częstochowa: at least 11Actual: 10
Cracovia Krakow: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Raków Częstochowa: at least 5Actual: 2
Cracovia Krakow: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score1.62

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cracovia Krakow's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cracovia Krakow score0.88

Attack: Cracovia Krakow score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–012.6%2–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.