Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 29

Gornik Zabrze–Korona Kielce

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze

Goals and red cards

71'Gornik ZabrzeRafał Janicki (assist: O. Zmrzly)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gornik Zabrze		Korona Kielce
20	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
436	Passes	313
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gornik Zabrze 1.60 · Korona Kielce 1.06. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Gornik Zabrze 20 · Korona Kielce 17; on target 6 and 3.
Gornik Zabrze kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

D. Sylwestrzak→

4.87

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.5%: “Gornik Zabrze to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Gornik Zabrze, 1.06 for Korona Kielce.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (1X — Gornik Zabrze win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,173 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gornik Zabrze to win49.5%

Draw26.8%

Korona Kielce to win23.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Gornik Zabrze lead at half-time34.7%

Level at half-time43.6%

Korona Kielce lead at half-time21.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Gornik Zabrze ahead or level78.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Korona Kielce ahead65.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1173 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gornik Zabrze: at least 10Actual: 5
Korona Kielce: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Gornik Zabrze: at least 5Actual: 6
Korona Kielce: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gornik Zabrze score1.60

Attack: Gornik Zabrze score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Korona Kielce's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Korona Kielce score1.06

Attack: Korona Kielce score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gornik Zabrze's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.5%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.