Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 28

Piast Gliwice–Pogon Szczecin

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 13 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

22'Pogon SzczecinF. Ulvestad (penalty)
45'Pogon SzczecinP. Mukairu (assist: Danijel Lončar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Piast Gliwice		Pogon Szczecin
15	Shots	4
2	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
11	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
435	Passes	323
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Piast Gliwice 1.50 · Pogon Szczecin 1.16. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Piast Gliwice 15 · Pogon Szczecin 4; on target 2 and 3.
Piast Gliwice kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

L. Kuzma→

3.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.3%: “Piast Gliwice to win”. Second comes “Pogon Szczecin to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Piast Gliwice, 1.16 for Pogon Szczecin.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,169 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Piast Gliwice to win44.3%

Draw27.6%

Pogon Szczecin to win28.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Piast Gliwice win or draw71.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.4%

X2 — draw or Pogon Szczecin win55.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Piast Gliwice lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time43.5%

Pogon Szczecin lead at half-time26.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Piast Gliwice ahead or level73.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Pogon Szczecin ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1169 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Piast Gliwice: at least 10Actual: 13
Pogon Szczecin: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Piast Gliwice: at least 5Actual: 11
Pogon Szczecin: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Piast Gliwice score1.50

Attack: Piast Gliwice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pogon Szczecin's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pogon Szczecin score1.16

Attack: Pogon Szczecin score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Piast Gliwice's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–110.0%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1169 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 129 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.