Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 28

Lech Poznan–GKS Katowice

3–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

38'GKS KatowiceE. Markovic (assist: Alan Czerwiński)
48'Lech PoznanA. Jedrych (own goal)
60'GKS KatowiceI. Shkurin
74'Lech PoznanD. Hakans (assist: L. Palma)
78'GKS KatowiceE. Markovic
80'Lech PoznanL. Palma (assist: A. Gholizadeh)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lech Poznan		GKS Katowice
18	Shots	18
6	Shots on target	9
13	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	9
1	Offsides	3
62%	Possession	38%
540	Passes	322
474	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lech Poznan 2.05 · GKS Katowice 0.87. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Lech Poznan 18 · GKS Katowice 18; on target 6 and 9.
Lech Poznan kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

D. Sylwestrzak→

4.91

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.1%: “Lech Poznan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.05 for Lech Poznan, 0.87 for GKS Katowice.
The highest double chance value is 86.5% (1X — Lech Poznan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,168 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lech Poznan to win65.1%

Draw21.3%

GKS Katowice to win13.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lech Poznan win or draw86.5%

12 — any result other than a draw78.7%

X2 — draw or GKS Katowice win34.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Lech Poznan lead at half-time63.7%

Level at half-time30.3%

GKS Katowice lead at half-time6.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Lech Poznan ahead or level94.0%

12 — not level at half-time69.7%

X2 — level or GKS Katowice ahead36.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1168 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lech Poznan: at least 11Actual: 10
GKS Katowice: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

Lech Poznan: at least 5Actual: 6
GKS Katowice: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lech Poznan score2.05

Attack: Lech Poznan score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: GKS Katowice's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GKS Katowice score0.87

Attack: GKS Katowice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lech Poznan's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.6%2–110.9%1–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1168 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 61 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.