Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 27

Gornik Zabrze–Cracovia Krakow

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze

Goals and red cards

11'Gornik ZabrzeY. Ikia Dimi
78'Gornik ZabrzeJ. Kubicki (assist: Lukáš Sadílek)
82'Gornik ZabrzeM. Rakoczy (assist: M. Khlan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gornik Zabrze		Cracovia Krakow
16	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
479	Passes	413
404	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gornik Zabrze 1.38 · Cracovia Krakow 0.98. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Gornik Zabrze 16 · Cracovia Krakow 16; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

L. Kuzma→

3.88

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “Gornik Zabrze to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Gornik Zabrze, 0.98 for Cracovia Krakow.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (1X — Gornik Zabrze win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,154 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gornik Zabrze to win45.5%

Draw29.2%

Cracovia Krakow to win25.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Gornik Zabrze lead at half-time31.2%

Level at half-time45.8%

Cracovia Krakow lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Gornik Zabrze ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Cracovia Krakow ahead68.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1154 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gornik Zabrze: at least 10Actual: 10
Cracovia Krakow: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Gornik Zabrze: at least 5Actual: 4
Cracovia Krakow: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gornik Zabrze score1.38

Attack: Gornik Zabrze score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cracovia Krakow's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cracovia Krakow score0.98

Attack: Cracovia Krakow score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gornik Zabrze's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–012.3%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.