Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 27

Raków Częstochowa–Widzew Łódź

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 12:45
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

36'Raków CzęstochowaZ. Arsenic · red card
90'Widzew ŁódźFran Álvarez (assist: S. Bergier)
90'Raków CzęstochowaS. Svarnas (assist: L. Diaby-Fadiga)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Raków Częstochowa		Widzew Łódź
7	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
305	Passes	468
203	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Raków Częstochowa 1.66 · Widzew Łódź 0.85. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Raków Częstochowa 7 · Widzew Łódź 16; on target 2 and 2.
Widzew Łódź kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

P. Raczkowski→

5.49

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.6%: “Raków Częstochowa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Raków Częstochowa, 0.85 for Widzew Łódź.
The highest double chance value is 82.4% (1X — Raków Częstochowa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,153 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Raków Częstochowa to win56.6%

Draw25.8%

Widzew Łódź to win17.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Raków Częstochowa lead at half-time42.0%

Level at half-time41.9%

Widzew Łódź lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Raków Częstochowa ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Widzew Łódź ahead58.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1153 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Raków Częstochowa: at least 11Actual: 10
Widzew Łódź: at least 13Actual: 19

Corners

Raków Częstochowa: at least 4Actual: 4
Widzew Łódź: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score1.66

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Widzew Łódź's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Widzew Łódź score0.85

Attack: Widzew Łódź score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–012.8%2–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.